Ulnie Predicts the Future of Broadcast Television

[The Ulnarian]

Is it just me, or are devices like TiVo and Digital Cable (with the nifty fast forward and rewind televsion features) going to end broadcast television as we know it?

As you know, those devices allow viewers to skip past the commercials. While this is cool for the viewers, it sucks for the advertisers who pay the studios quite a bit of money to play those commercials. If no one is watching the commercials anymore, advertisers will not pay for commercial airtime anymore, and the studios will be left with a seriously deflated income.

While not too big of a problem right now, the use of such devices are becoming more widespread. When enough people are skipping commercials with these devices I reckon the following will happen:

First, the TV studios will fight like crazy in court to have TiVo and other such companies remove the "skip past commercial" features in the devices. Given the fact that courts have generally placed the interest of furthering technology over the interest of the television studios (i.e. check out the studio's inability to legally defeat the VCR), it's unlikely the studios will win any such legal battles.

After their crushing defeat in court, the studios will be hard-pressed to come up with income. Since viewers are now skipping the commercials, the only alternative is to make the commercials a part of the show. Product placement will run rampant. In the future, you will turn on Lost to view Kate decked out in Nike carefully applying her Maybeline mascara while Locke finds a nifty Hummer in the bushes and Charlie pops a Foster's in the back.

However, I doubt such an approach to income generation would be sustainable for very long, I really can't see corporations shelling out the same kind of cash for product placements as they would for stand-alone commercials.

At this point, one of two things will happen.

1. The studios will make due with the meager income they are recieving and just make crappy shows. I think this can only lead to the slow decline of "broadcast television".

or

2. The studios will call it quits, and become premium channels which tv viewers must pay a special monthly fee to watch. In effect, ABC and CBS will become as HBO and Showtime.

I dunno, just some thoughts. What do you guys think?